This is an attempt to summarise some key messages from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers in haiku format.
Earth to politics:
Here’s what the science tells us.
Can we act now – please?
Relevant SPM headline, bullet(s), figure(s): Introduction
Earth is heating up,
The whole climate system:
Air, ocean, land, ice.
SPM A.1, Figure SPM.1a
We’ve passed 1 degree,
Which is warmer than we thought.
And rising further.
SPM A.1.2, Footnote 10, SPM B.1
Heat waves, heavy rain,
Droughts, cyclones: not abstract change,
But painfully real.
Figure SPM.3
State, scale, rate of change
In aspects and whole system:
“unprecedented”.
SPM A.2, A.2.1-A.2.4
Do we know why? Yes.
We’re the driving force behind
Climate system change.
SPM A.1, A.1.1, A.1.3-A.1.8, Figure SPM.1b, Figure SPM.2, SPM A.3
Human influence
on the climate system is
“unequivocal”.
SPM A.1, A1.1, A.1.3-A.1.8, Figure SPM.1b, Figure SPM.2, SPM A.3
Where are we headed?
Scenarios can show us
Alternate futures.
Box SPM.1, Figure SPM.4
We’ll reach 1.5
In roughly the mid-thirties.
Beyond that: our choice.
Table SPM.1, Figure SPM.8
Rapid and sustained
Emission cuts halt warming
Within three decades.
Box SPM.1, Table SPM.1, Figure SPM.8
Our best case reaches
1.5 degrees; exceeds;
Then drops down again.
SPM B.1.1, B.1.3, Footnotes 25, 27, Figure SPM.8
More than 1.5:
More heat than Homo Sapiens
Has ever lived through.
SPM A2.2
Air, land, and ocean.
A force-fed carbon cycle
May spew back at us.
SPM B.4, B.4.1-B.4.4, Figure SPM.7
Ice loss, rising seas:
1 metre is a given. But
When? That’s up to us.
SPM B.5, B.5.3, B.5.4, Figure SPM.8
We’re not prescriptive:
We’re just saying, the future
Still lies in our hands.
SPM Box.1
More heat, more extremes,
Driving climate impacts:
Half degrees matter.
SPM B.2, SPM B.3, SPM C.2, Figure SPM.5, Figure SPM.6
Don’t pin your planning
On means and likely ranges:
It’s the tail that stings.
SPM C.3, C.3.1-C.3.3
Covid lockdowns cut
Emissions, air pollution.
Warming? Not really.
SPM D.2.1
A stable climate
Needs net-zero CO2:
That’s simple physics.
SPM D.1, D.1.1, Figure SPM.10
Removing carbon
Helps net-zero, but beware:
Side-effects abound.
SPM D.1.4, D.1.5
To limit warming,
Stick to a carbon budget,
Cut other gases.
SPM D.1, D.1.1, D.1.2, Table SPM.2
1.5 degrees
Needs strong, sustained methane cuts,
Not just CO2.
SPM D.1, D.1.2, Table SPM.2, Figure SPM.4
Lower methane helps
Climate and air quality.
That’s called a win-win.
SPM D.2, D.2.2
We may not see it
For a decade, but climate
Will respond to us.
SPM D.2, D.2.3, D.2.4
Approved by Zoom, signed
Sealed, delivered: 9 August
2021.
The SPM was approved, and the underlying report accepted by all member governments. Global press conference held at 10am CEST, 9 August 2021.
Note: these haiku/sciku represent my own personal selection and perspective on the key findings presented in the SPM of the IPCC WGI, which was released on 9 August 2021. The haiku do not represent the full balance or carefully crafted wording of the original document, let alone underlying report. All credit for scientific substance is due to the authors of the report, led by co-chairs Valérie Masson-Delmotte and Panmao Zhai and head of the Technical Support Unit Anna Pirani. Any blame for scientific inaccuracies, misinterpretations and undue poetic license rests with me. Thanks for reading!
Andy is currently a vice-chair of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He also served as coordinating lead author in two major IPCC climate change reports released in 2014. For more details on the IPCC and its reports, see https://ipcc.ch.
He has summarised two previous reports by the IPCC in haiku format, on Limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C and on Climate Change and Land. He was motivated to do so by New Zealand-based think tank Motu (https://motu.nz) that decided to provide a single haiku summary for each of its technical reports. He emphasizes that his haiku represent his personal interpretation of the IPCC reports and are not done as part of his official role.
During the day, Andy works as Principal Scientist, Climate Change, at the Ministry for the Environment in New Zealand, where his job is to provide a science-based perspective on the Ministry’s work. You can find him on Twitter here: @ReisingerAndy.
Andy’s scientific research interests focus on the role of agriculture in domestic and international climate change policy, and climate change impacts and adaptation, uncertainty and its implications for decision-making.
This haiku summary of the IPCC WGI SPM was originally published on the 14th August 2021 on Andy Reisinger’s Twitter account here, and is republished on The Sciku Project with the author’s kind permission. Copyright @ReisingerAndy, shared under a Global Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license.
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