Category: Geoscience

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Dusty Shoulders by Jonathan Aylett

little honeybee
carrying all our futures
on dusty shoulders

by Jonathan Aylett

This haiku about the ecological importance of bees was displayed at COP 28 in Dubai.

Further reading:

‘Why are bees important? And how you can help them’, Charlotte Varela, 2023, Woodland Trust.

Author bio:

Jonathan has been writing and publishing poetry for several years. His work has featured in journals dedicated to haiku, and broader literary journals, and won competitions across both disciplines. His collection ‘Goldfish’ – a mix of haiku and long form poetry, will be published by Stairwell books in spring 2024. You can follow Jonathan on Instagram here: @jonathanaylettpoetry 

Read other sciku by Jonathan here: ‘Light’, ‘String Theory’ and ‘Moss’.

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Marble by petro c. k.

big blue marble
another turn
for the steelie

by petro c. k.

It shocked people earlier this year when news circulated that scientists calculated that the earth’s inner core is reversing its rotation in relation to the earth’s rotation of the crust. Don’t worry, this is fine. The solid metal core inside the earth spins cushioned by the liquid molten magma layer, with calculations showing that the speed of its rotation is independent of the rotation of the outer core. New research suggests every 35 years or so the inner metal ball slows down, stops, then switches direction. This 70-year cycle may explain corresponding differences to the earth’s magnetic fields and the length of the days.

In the game of marbles, solid metal marbles are called “steelies” and based on the author’s childhood, larger ones are especially prized.

Further reading:

‘Earth’s inner core may be reversing its rotation’, 2023, Science News: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/earth-inner-core-reverse-rotation

‘Multidecadal variation of the Earth’s inner-core rotation’, 2023, Y. Yang & X. Song, Nature Geoscience: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01112-z

Author bio:

petro c. k. is a temporal being living on a spinning rock in a vast universe who writes tiny haiku about infinitesimally small moments of time. You can catch up with petro on Twitter here: @petro_ck

Check out other sciku by petro c. k. here: ‘Saturn’s Moons’, ‘Young Star’, and ‘Giggling’.

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Climate Change by Gerard Sarnat MD

Let’s rewild large parts
of the Earth while we rewild
large parts of ourselves.

by Gerard Sarnat MD

My adult son is an entomologist, specifically a myrmecologist (in his case, an “ant man”) who has been primarily interested in digging in dirt before he could walk. As a pre-teen, we visited Harvard Professor E.O. Wilson’s ant-farm exhibit in Cambridge, which inspired him to write essentially the same increasingly sophisticated paper starting, “Ants have done agriculture and had slaves for millions of years” for grade, high school, college and PhD presentations — all of which I was privileged to attend, and be influenced by. His UC Berkeley college prof paid him the ultimate compliment of “likely being the next E.O. Wilson”.

Rewilding was developed as a method to preserve functional ecosystems and reduce biodiversity loss, incorporating research in island biogeography and the ecological role of large carnivores. In 1967, Wilson’s ‘The Theory of Island Biogeography’ established the importance of considering the size and isolation of wildlife conservation areas, stating that protected areas remained vulnerable to extinctions if small and isolated. By happenstance, a family friend and another geographer, Jared Diamond (most famous for ‘Guns, Germs, and Steel‘) has also influenced my once-boy to be a champion of re-wilding and biodiversity.

Further reading:

‘The Theory of Island Biogeography’, Robert H. MacArthur and Edward O. Wilson, Princeton University Press, https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691088365/the-theory-of-island-biogeography

‘The Theory of Island Biogeography’, Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Theory_of_Island_Biogeography

‘Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies’, Jared Diamond, W. W. Norton Books: https://wwnorton.com/books/Guns-Germs-and-Steel/

‘Guns, Germs, and Steel’, Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guns,_Germs,_and_Steel

Author bio:
Gerard Sarnat MD’s authored ‘HOMELESS CHRONICLES’, ‘Disputes’, ’17s’, and ‘Melting The Ice King’. Gerry’s published by Gargoyle, Newark Public Library, Blue Minaret, Columbia, Harvard, Stanford, Main Street Rag, New Delta Review, Northampton Review, New Haven Institute, Buddhist Review, American Journal Poetry, Poetry Quarterly, Brooklyn Review, LA Review, SF Magazine, NY Times. You can find out more about Gerard’s work here: gerardsarnat.com

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Heating by Thomas Klodowsky

blinding hot sun
a t-shirt in February
confused birdsongs

by Thomas Klodowsky

New Jersey, the state I’ve lived in all my life, just experienced the warmest January on record, and any accumulation of snow seems to be a distant hope. NJ is also one of the fastest warming states of the last 50 years. As nice as it’s felt outside (even reaching over 60 F) so far this year, it makes me nervous for what future winters might hold, confusing wildlife, vegetation, and people.

In fact, evidence is already increasing that early and false springs occurring as a result of climate change are detrimentally affecting bird populations in a number of ways, from disrupting migratory cycles to setting them out of sync with key food sources such as caterpillars.

Further reading:

‘NJ experienced a record warm January. What’s the outlook for the rest of winter?’, NorthJersey.com: https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/environment/2023/02/10/nj-had-warmest-january-on-record-what-will-rest-of-winter-bring/69889744007/

‘False Springs: How Earlier Spring With Climate Change Wreaks Havoc on Birds’, Audubon.org: https://www.audubon.org/news/false-springs-how-earlier-spring-climate-change-wreaks-havoc-birds

‘Climate change leaves birds hungry as chicks hatch too late to eat caterpillars’, The Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/climate-change-hungry-birds-chicks-late-caterpillars-spring-woodland-flycatchers-a8318366.html

‘Migrating birds can’t keep up with an earlier spring in a changing climate’, CarbonBrief.org: https://www.carbonbrief.org/migrating-birds-cant-keep-earlier-spring-changing-climate/

Author bio:

Thomas Klodowsky is a writer, writing instructor, and proud New Jersey native. You can see what he’s up to at www.thomask.space

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Suspended by Michele Rule

Metal formation
Buried deep inside the moon
Suspended mass

by Michele Rule

When I read about the discovery of a huge metal mass buried deep underground below the surface of the moon, I immediately jumped to the idea of a spaceship crash site. But reading more I learned about several possible causes, one being an asteroid crash and the other related to the magma solidification of the Moon’s surface. Both involved the suspension of a metal “structure” in a large mass, five times the size of the big island of Hawai’i.

Further reading:

‘Astronomers Discover ‘Deep Structure’ Under Moon’s Largest Crater’, Futurism: https://futurism.com/the-byte/deep-structure-mass-moon-crater

‘Deep Structure of the Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin’, Geophysical Research Letters: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082252

Author bio:

Michele Rule lives in Kelowna BC where she writes poems and stories with two dogs, two cats and a supportive partner. Her first book is “Around the World in 15 Haiku”. You can find more of her writing via Linktree and on Twitter @michelerule.

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Precipitation by Sally Quon

precipitation –
an atmospheric river
freezing as it falls

by Sally Quon

I first heard the term ‘atmospheric river’ in 2021 when my region was hit by one or more. Roads were washed out, landslides, farms flooded and livestock destroyed. This winter another atmospheric river formed and descended upon us, but this time in the form of snow.

Further reading:

‘Minister’s statement on one-year anniversary of atmospheric river’, Government of British Columbia: https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2022EMBC0063-001700

‘Atmospheric River’, Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_river

Author bio:

Sally Quon is a disabled writer from the Okanagan Valley in beautiful British Columbia. She actively engages in photography, creative non-fiction, and poetry, including a budding interest in Japanese short forms. She is a member of Haiku Canada and an associate member of the League of Canadian Poets. You can find out more about Sally here: https://featherstone-creative.com and follow her on Twitter @QuonSally

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Environmental Charlie Browns by Jerome Berglund

children’s ambitious
chalk drawings smudged by elements
December morning

By Jerome Berglund

After Democrats, during campaigning, vocally aligning themselves with Green New Deal initiatives, the imperatives of climate science and crucial regulatory, environmental and energy reforms, Joe Biden’s energy policy has been supportive of fracking, retains $20 billion in annual subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, continues to focus on expansion of nuclear infrastructure that (beyond being potentially catastrophic) are as much as three times as costly as wind or solar alternatives.

Progressive supporters begin to feel increasingly like betrayed Charlie Browns, as one supposedly leftist representative after another double-crosses their constituents, reneges on clear promises and continues supporting the very detrimental agendas and structures they purported their stances on were the meaningful thing which separated them from science-denying or ignoring conservative opponents.

The most perfunctory analysis of who is buttering bread of politicians on both sides of the aisle gives a telling indication of which interests they are representing, and what their terms of office’s legacies in policy will look like.

Further reading: Biden’s climate agenda stalls, and progressives fume

Author bio:

Jerome Berglund, recently nominated for the 2022 Touchstone awards, graduated from USC’s film program, worked in the entertainment industry before returning to the midwest where he has been employed as everything from dishwasher to paralegal, night watchman to assembler of heart valves.  Jerome has exhibited many haiku, senryu and haiga online and in print, most recently in the Asahi Shimbun, Bear Creek Haiku, Bamboo Hut, Cold Moon Journal, Daily Haiga, Failed Haiku, Haiku Dialogue, Scarlet Dragonfly, Under the Basho, and the Zen Space. You can follow him on Twitter @BerglundJerome and find more of his poetry here:  https://flowersunmedia.wixsite.com/jbphotography/post/haiku-senryu-and-haiga-publications

Check out Jerome’s other sciku here: ‘Illusion‘, ‘Civil Disobedience’, ‘Vested Interests‘ and ‘Exploitation in Micro and Macro’.

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Peat-based Haiku for COP26 by Abby McSherry and The CANN Project

The CANN project (Collaborative Action for the Natura Network) is a cross-border environment project which aims to improve the condition of protected bog and wetland habitats found within Northern Ireland, the Border Region of Ireland and Scotland, allowing the region to meet key EU biodiversity targets and ensuring the future of these internationally important habitats and species. The CANN project is supported by the European Union’s INTERREG VA Programme, managed by the Special EU Programmes Body (SEUPB). It is led by Newry, Mourne and Down District Council.

The CANN project focuses on the conservation and restoration of seven habitat types which are protected as Special Areas of Conservation under the EU Habitats Directive: Alkaline Fens, Blanket Bog, Active Raised Bog, Marl Lakes, Calcareous Fens, Transition Mire & Quaking Bogs. These habitats are identified as being important in ensuring the survival of at risk plants and wildlife, and for promoting and sustaining biodiversity from a local to an international scale.

The CANN project – led by Abby McSherry, the project’s Communications and Outreach Officer – decided to celebrate COP26 by tweeting a Haiku-a-day on the subject of peat’s role in combatting climate change in the run-up to the meeting in November 2021. Below is a small sample of these fantastic haiku. The entire collection has been compiled in a booklet freely available on the CANN project website here.

Day 5

Sphagnum naturally produces phenolic compounds that slow the decomposition of the plants that make up peat. Preventing peat decomposition will help keep the carbon it holds locked away.

Day 10

A raised bog often has a water table perched higher than the surrounding land, which can be hard to understand unless you visualise it as a water droplet perched on the land. It is delicately balanced, and that balance can shift.

Day 20

Carbon is locked up effectively in other habitats too. Lowland fens and mires are significant sinks too and are under even greater threat from damage as they are often surrounded by valuable arable land.

Day 25

Across the world, peat covers just 3% of the land’s surface, but stores one-third of the Earth’s soil carbon, not just a sticking plaster, but potentially a cure for what ails us. If we care for it, it will care for us.

Further Reading:

All 31 haiku (plus some bonuses!) are freely available here, in pdf and flipbook form: https://thecannproject.org/publications/booklet-of-peat-based-haiku-sci-cu-poems/

Find out more about the CANN project and the brilliant work the team are doing here: https://thecannproject.org/

You can also follow the CANN project on Twitter here: @theCANNproject

About Abby McSherry: I have worked in practical conservation and waste management since I gained my BSc in Physical Geography, and discovered early on that I had a talent for translating geek-speak into language that non-scientists could understand and enjoy so I moved more towards the communication side of various conservation projects. I use creative tools garnered from my personal life to find different ways to communicate my science, so poetry, painting, photography and even crochet are as likely to feature as piezometer readings.

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Summarising the IPCC WGI SPM by Dr Andy Reisinger

This is an attempt to summarise some key messages from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers in haiku format.

Earth to politics:
Here’s what the science tells us.
Can we act now – please?

Relevant SPM headline, bullet(s), figure(s): Introduction

Earth is heating up,
The whole climate system:
Air, ocean, land, ice.

SPM A.1, Figure SPM.1a

We’ve passed 1 degree,
Which is warmer than we thought.
And rising further.

SPM A.1.2, Footnote 10, SPM B.1

Heat waves, heavy rain,
Droughts, cyclones: not abstract change,
But painfully real.

Figure SPM.3

State, scale, rate of change
In aspects and whole system:
“unprecedented”.

SPM A.2, A.2.1-A.2.4

Do we know why? Yes.
We’re the driving force behind
Climate system change.

SPM A.1, A.1.1, A.1.3-A.1.8, Figure SPM.1b, Figure SPM.2, SPM A.3

Human influence
on the climate system is
“unequivocal”.

SPM A.1, A1.1, A.1.3-A.1.8, Figure SPM.1b, Figure SPM.2, SPM A.3

Where are we headed?
Scenarios can show us
Alternate futures.

Box SPM.1, Figure SPM.4

We’ll reach 1.5
In roughly the mid-thirties.
Beyond that: our choice.

Table SPM.1, Figure SPM.8

Rapid and sustained
Emission cuts halt warming
Within three decades.

Box SPM.1, Table SPM.1, Figure SPM.8

Our best case reaches
1.5 degrees; exceeds;
Then drops down again.

SPM B.1.1, B.1.3, Footnotes 25, 27, Figure SPM.8

More than 1.5:
More heat than Homo Sapiens
Has ever lived through.

SPM A2.2

Air, land, and ocean.
A force-fed carbon cycle
May spew back at us.

SPM B.4, B.4.1-B.4.4, Figure SPM.7

Ice loss, rising seas:
1 metre is a given. But
When? That’s up to us.

SPM B.5, B.5.3, B.5.4, Figure SPM.8

We’re not prescriptive:
We’re just saying, the future
Still lies in our hands.

SPM Box.1

More heat, more extremes,
Driving climate impacts:
Half degrees matter.

SPM B.2, SPM B.3, SPM C.2, Figure SPM.5, Figure SPM.6

Don’t pin your planning
On means and likely ranges:
It’s the tail that stings.

SPM C.3, C.3.1-C.3.3

Covid lockdowns cut
Emissions, air pollution.
Warming? Not really.

SPM D.2.1

A stable climate
Needs net-zero CO2:
That’s simple physics.

SPM D.1, D.1.1, Figure SPM.10

Removing carbon
Helps net-zero, but beware:
Side-effects abound.

SPM D.1.4, D.1.5

To limit warming,
Stick to a carbon budget,
Cut other gases.

SPM D.1, D.1.1, D.1.2, Table SPM.2

1.5 degrees
Needs strong, sustained methane cuts,
Not just CO2.

SPM D.1, D.1.2, Table SPM.2, Figure SPM.4

Lower methane helps
Climate and air quality.
That’s called a win-win.

SPM D.2, D.2.2

We may not see it
For a decade, but climate
Will respond to us.

SPM D.2, D.2.3, D.2.4

Approved by Zoom, signed
Sealed, delivered: 9 August
2021.

The SPM was approved, and the underlying report accepted by all member governments. Global press conference held at 10am CEST, 9 August 2021.

Note: these haiku/sciku represent my own personal selection and perspective on the key findings presented in the SPM of the IPCC WGI, which was released on 9 August 2021. The haiku do not represent the full balance or carefully crafted wording of the original document, let alone underlying report. All credit for scientific substance is due to the authors of the report, led by co-chairs Valérie Masson-Delmotte and Panmao Zhai and head of the Technical Support Unit Anna Pirani. Any blame for scientific inaccuracies, misinterpretations and undue poetic license rests with me. Thanks for reading!

Andy is currently a vice-chair of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He also served as coordinating lead author in two major IPCC climate change reports released in 2014. For more details on the IPCC and its reports, see https://ipcc.ch.

He has summarised two previous reports by the IPCC in haiku format, on Limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C and on Climate Change and Land. He was motivated to do so by New Zealand-based think tank Motu (https://motu.nz) that decided to provide a single haiku summary for each of its technical reports. He emphasizes that his haiku represent his personal interpretation of the IPCC reports and are not done as part of his official role.

During the day, Andy works as Principal Scientist, Climate Change, at the Ministry for the Environment in New Zealand, where his job is to provide a science-based perspective on the Ministry’s work. You can find him on Twitter here: @ReisingerAndy.

Andy’s scientific research interests focus on the role of agriculture in domestic and international climate change policy, and climate change impacts and adaptation, uncertainty and its implications for decision-making.

This haiku summary of the IPCC WGI SPM was originally published on the 14th August 2021 on Andy Reisinger’s Twitter account here, and is republished on The Sciku Project with the author’s kind permission. Copyright @ReisingerAndy, shared under a Global Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license.

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Plastic, Pollution, Policy

Accumulating.
Reject virgin, manage waste
before it’s too late.

Global annual emissions of plastic pollution are estimated to be between 22 and 48 million metric tons. If current trends continue then these 2016 estimates will double by 2025, and even current proposals for plastic management still predict emissions increasing annually.

Plastic can take anywhere between decades and centuries for it to be removed from the environment naturally through decomposition. When pollution exceeds removal plastic accumulates in the environment. Active removal of plastic from the environment is often very difficult, meaning that plastic is a “poorly reversible pollutant”.

Yet the damage that plastic can cause to the environment and to humans is vast, from plastics accumulating in food chains to the impact plastic pollution can have on the carbon cycle, and a whole range of other negative effects.

All of this is known. Much has been known for decades.

Yet our reliance on virgin plastic materials and our poor waste management strategies are doing little to stem the problem. Indeed, rich countries frequently send their plastic waste to poorer countries that have worse facilities for recycling plastics.

In a review of research into plastic pollution MacLeod et al. (2021) suggest that it may soon be too late to stop or reverse some of the catastrophic damage that plastic pollution causes. The researchers identify areas that are particularly threatened and demonstrate the complex process that plastic goes through as it degrades and just how far reaching and impactful plastic pollution can be.

Their analysis of the research concludes that plastic pollution is a “planetary boundary threat” and that the only “rational policy response” is to take rapid action to curb plastic emissions and improve global and national waste management.

Original research: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abg5433

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Hadal Mercury

Quicksilver sinking.
Sediments sequestering
in the cold, dark deep.

Mercury pollution can cause huge environmental damage, accumulating in the food chain and causing harm to wildlife and humans. Reducing mercury pollution is vitally important and monitoring mercury levels in the environment is crucial for understanding how mercury travels through ecosystems. Yet measuring mercury levels isn’t always easy.

Recent research by Sanei et al. (2021) examined some of the most challenging areas to access on the planet – the deep-ocean trenches. The researchers collected sediment core samples from areas of the Kermadec and Atacama Trench Systems in the Pacific Ocean, over 6km below the surface in the hadal zone.

The researchers found that some areas were mercury hotspots, with levels 6–56 times higher than the previously inferred deep-ocean average. Whilst the hadal zone comprises only around 1% of the deep-ocean area, the findings suggest that it may account for 12–30% of the mercury estimate for the entire deep-ocean.

The findings raise serious questions about levels of mercury pollution in the oceans, highlighting the need for further research into deep-ocean mercury pollution. There is one bright spark in this worrying cold, dark news – mercury in trench sediments is effectively locked away, buried for millions of years as plate tectonics shifts it deep into the earth’s upper mantle.

Original research: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90459-1

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Violent Aftershocks

Gender violence.
The ripples of disaster,
exacerbating.

Natural disasters and hazards are increasing in frequency, severity and duration worldwide, with evidence suggesting that the cause is anthropogenic climate change. Whilst this means we need improved and increased disaster management policies and practices for the immediate impacts of disasters (e.g. the collapse of a building during an earthquake), it is just as important to understand the wider implications natural disasters.

Women and girls are disproportionately impacted by natural disasters and hazards, including having higher mortality rates. The causes of this discrepancy include “discriminatory practices in relief efforts, lower access to information and resources, care responsibilities and gendered poverty”, with women’s perspectives in disaster management “not adequately considered and met”.

Yet new research by Thurston et al. (2021) also suggests that violence against women and girls also increases following natural disasters. Reviewing 37 previous studies the team found positive associations between disaster exposure and increased gender-based violence, with 12 of the 20 quantitative studies showing a positive association and all 17 of the qualitative and mixed methods studies describing post-disaster violence against women and girls.

The researchers suggest three reasons behind this increase, with natural disasters and hazards:

  • Increasing stressors that trigger gendered violence (e.g. trauma, mental health issues, financial insecurities).
  • Increasing enabling environments (e.g. the absence of police, health and support services, a breakdown of family structure, social isolation).
  • Exacerbating the underlying drivers of violence against women and girls (e.g. gender and social inequalities, lack of female representation and inclusion).

Whilst the researchers acknowledge their work has some limitations (due to the limitations of the studies they examined), their findings make it clear that disaster risk-reduction policies must be gender sensitive and women need to be included in all aspects of disaster management, from policy to practice.

Original research: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-004377

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Mapping Seagrass Loss

Quantifying our
marine meadows – past, present.
A threadbare carpet.

Everyone knows their own science interests, the areas of research that they find thought-provoking. Sometimes I think that there are also subjects that we don’t realise we find fascinating. I never knew I was interested in seagrasses but this is the third sciku I’ve published about them, the second that I’ve written myself. It’s curious that I wouldn’t have known this about myself before today when this research paper caught my eye.

Seagrasses are hugely important ecosystems. In the sciku ‘Forgotten value’ I wrote about how seagrass meadows provide a nursery habitat for over a fifth of the world’s largest 25 fisheries. And as Dr Phil Colarusso showed with his sciku ‘Blue Carbon’, seagrass meadows collect and sequester large amounts of carbon, removing it from the global carbon cycle. As a result seagrass meadows are referred to as blue carbon habitats, along with salt marshes and mangroves.

Today’s sciku is based on a study by Green et al (2021), which examines the historical loss of seagrasses from the waters around the United Kingdom. By scrutinising multiple accounts from as early as 1831 and using data collected from 1900 onwards the researchers were able to estimate the UK’s seagrass losses. It makes for sobering reading:

“At least 44% of United Kingdom’s seagrasses have been lost since 1936, 39% since the 1980’s. However, losses over longer time spans may be as high as 92%.”

The research shows that the UK currently has only 8,493 hectares of seagrass meadows remaining. That’s approximated 0.9 Mt (million tonnes) of carbon, equivalent to around £22 million in the current carbon market. Whilst that may seem a lot, it’s worth considering that historic seagrass meadows could have stored 11.5 Mt of carbon, supporting around 400 million fish.

These losses are catastrophic but the information from this study can be used to inform future monitoring and restoration efforts. What’s more, by quantifying the benefits we gain from seagrass meadows as well as what we’ve lost from their disappearance, the findings also provide an impetus for improved conservation efforts, beyond ‘softer’ arguments such improving biodiversity.

Original research: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2021.629962  

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Sawfish Decline

Shout from the rostrum:
‘Poor Carpenters in the soup!’
Such dentistry snared.

Tracking declining animal populations can be tricky enough on land, but in the ocean it’s an even harder proposition. Yet without knowledge of marine animal populations, conservation efforts can’t be directed effectively. One way to solve this issue is to examine drivers of site occupancy – what causes some populations to thrive or decline in an area. Understanding these drivers can allow researchers to predict population declines and gain insight into the probability of local population extinctions.

Sawfish are a family of rays with distinctive long, flat snouts which have horizontal teeth running along the length to resemble saws. Known as rostrums (an alternative definition to the more common meaning of a raised platform for speaking or performing from) they are packed with electroreceptors that allow them to detect prey, whilst the teeth are thought to be used in a swiping motion to incapacitate fish.

Sadly, three of the five sawfish species are Critically Endangered and the other two are Endangered. Since sawfish aren’t commonly sighted keeping track of their populations is hard and there’s little systematic monitoring. To address this Yan et al. (2021) combined data from occurrence surveys with indices of ecological carrying capacity, fishing pressure and management capacity to predict local population extinctions and identify regions where conservation efforts might be most effective.

Overfishing of sawfish is a particular threat: their fins are prized for shark fin soup (whilst sawfish are known as Carpenter sharks, they aren’t actually sharks), their teeth are used as spurs for cockfighting, their rostrum are frequently sold as novelties or trophies, and parts of them are used in traditional medicines in countries including China, Mexico, Brazil, India, Kenya and Iran.

Accidental overfishing is an issue too: their iconic rostrum and teeth are easily tangled in fishing nets and lines. What’s more, untangling sawfish from nets can be difficult and dangerous so some fishermen will kill them before bringing them aboard.

By understanding issues like overfishing and habitat loss Yan et al. were able to show that sawfish are likely to be extinct off the coasts of 55 of the 90 countries where they previously existed. Their findings also suggest that if eight nations prioritise sawfish conservation (Cube, Tanzania, Colombia, Madagascar, Panama, Brazil, Mexico and Sri Lanka), then up to 71.5% of the sawfish family’s historical global distribution would be protected.

Original research: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb6026

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Wildfire’s Secrets

Hidden harm of smoke.
Microbial long-haul flights.
Lurking, infecting.

Wildfires cause huge amounts of long-term harm, including human, other animal and plant deaths, habitat loss, property and infrastructure destruction, the loss of carbon reservoirs and increased chances of flooding and landslides. Small airborne particles in smoke can be inhaled and cause fatal problems within the respiratory system, whilst the high levels of carbon monoxide produced can result in long-term brain damage, heart problems and even suffocation.

Yet researchers are revealing a new potential health threat as a result of wildfires – some microbes and fungi known to cause human infections are able to survive in the smoke plumes. Wildfires disturb soils causing these microbes to become airborne. Within the smoke the microbes ‘travel’ on particulate matter which is likely to protect them from ultraviolet radiation.

Kobziar & Thompson (2020) argue that the ability of microbes to survive in smoke plumes means that wildfires could play a role in geographical patterns of infection and that more research is needed to understand this threat. Particulate matter from wildfire smoke has been found to travel inter-continental distances. Those living close to wildfires, and even more so those firefighters working on the front lines are likely to be most at risk to such microbes – the US Centre for Disease Control has already stated that firefighting is an at-risk profession for coccidioidomycosis, a fungal infection also known as Valley fever.

The researchers argue that too little is currently known about microbe survival and spread in wildfire smoke. Essential questions remain, the answers to which will only be more important as the likelihood of wildfires increases as a result of climate change.

Original research: Kobziar & Thompson, 2020, Science, ‘Wildfire smoke, a potential infectious agent’ https://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.abe8116

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Varves by Dr. Jon Hare

Little Ice Age
and global warming
layered in a lake

By Jon Hare

Varves are annually layered sediments. I first came across the word in a study of fish scales preserved in anoxic basins off Santa Barbara, California (Baumgartner et al. 1992). Sediment cores were taken and the number and species of fish scales in the varves (layers) were used to estimate the number of anchovies and sardines off California over the past 1,700 years. The conclusion was that populations of these fish varied greatly long before commercial fishing, indicating the importance of natural variability and commercial fishing in fish population abundance.

A recent use of varves to document the past comes from Lapointe et al. (2020). They examined layered sediments in South Sawtooth Lake, Nunavut, Canada. Previous analyses demonstrated that sediment grain size in each layer (aka year) was correlated with summer temperatures; finer grained sediments were associated with cooler summers. In addition, finer grained sediments have more titanium, so by measuring titanium through the varves of sediment cores, the authors were able to reconstruct a history of summer temperatures at the site. The concept is the same as that for scales and anchovies but in this case is titanium and temperature.

Nicholas Balascio and Francois Lapointe drilling the 3.5 meters ice cover of Sawtooth Lake to allow sediment coring. Photo courtesy of François Lapointe (https://www.geo.umass.edu/people/fran%C3%A7ois-lapointe).

The authors verified their proxy through comparison of titanium from the varves in South Sawtooth Lake to measurements of summertime North Atlantic sea surface temperature. Temperature measurements are available annually from 1854 to the present and Lapointe and team show that temperature record is significantly correlated with their titanium measurements. They then use this verified relationship to develop a 2,900 year reconstruction – one of the longest reconstructions of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures to date.

The reconstructed temperature record shows multidecadal and multicentury variability and recent change. Multidecadal variability has been observed in measurements of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures from 1854 to the present. The study by Lapointe and co-authors provides evidence that this multidecadal variability has been occurring for almost 3,000 years. Multicentuary variability was also evident; the warm and cold periods noted in history are seen in the reconstructed temperatures  – the Roman Warm Period (250 BCE – 400 CE) and the Dark Ages Cold Period (400-800 CE). The coldest temperatures in the reconstruction are from the middle of the Little Ice Age (1400-1600 CE). The warmest temperatures in the 2,900 year reconstruction are from the past decade – the authors state that “the rate and magnitude of warming over the last few centuries are unprecedented in the entire record, leading to the last decade which was the warmest of the past ∼2,900 y.”  Thus the authors provide strong evidence for natural variability in the climate system and evidence for rapid – unprecedented – change over the last 50 to 100 years.

Original research:

Francois Lapointe, Raymond S. Bradley, Pierre Francus, Nicholas L. Balascio, Mark B. Abbott, Joseph S. Stoner, Guillaume St-Onge, Arnaud De Coninck, and Thibault Labarre. Annually resolved Atlantic sea surface temperature variability over the past 2,900 y. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020; 202014166 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2014166117. https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2020/10/06/2014166117.full.pdf

Baumgartner, T. R. (1992). Reconstruction of the history of the Pacific sardine and northern anchovy populations over the past two millenia from sediments of the Santa Barbara basin, California. CalCOFI Rep, 33, 24-40. https://www.calcofi.org/publications/calcofireports/v33/Vol_33_Baumgartner_etal.pdf

Dr. Jon Hare is a scientist who works in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. His research background is fisheries oceanography and climate change impacts on marine fisheries. Check out Jon’s previous sciku ‘Owls of the Eastern Ice’, ‘Cobwebs to Foodwebs’, ‘Signs of Spring’ and ‘Glacier Mice‘.

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Glacier Mice by Dr. Jon Hare

unexplained movements
of a moss ball herd
island bioglaciology

By Jon Hare

My brother sent me an NPR story about a herd of fuzzy green “glacier mice”. The concept is crazy – small rocks, covered in moss, on a glacier, moving in tandem like a herd of miniature muskox. Hotaling et al. (2020) studied moss balls on an Alaskan glacier. They tagged the balls and tracked them for 54 days to understand their movement and then revisited the site over the next three years to understand persistence.

Photo credit – Tim Bartholomaus (http://tbartholomaus.org)

The moss balls moved in unison at approximately 2 cm day-1. Speed of movement was related to rate of ablation of the glacier surface: more ice melting, greater speed of movement. The direction of movement, however, was not related to ablation, nor slope, wind direction, or direction of solar radiation. Further, the moss balls persisted over years with an annual survival rate of 0.86, which equates to a greater than 6 year life span. It is hard to imagine a herd of moss balls surviving six Alaskan winters to move around together in subsequent summers.

These moss balls are also hotspots of biological diversity – they provide an island-like habitat for an array of organisms. How the biodiversity survives the winter is also unknown, as are the rates of colonization and extinction on the moss balls – raising questions of island biogeography on a glacier.

Original research: Hotaling, S, T. C. Bartholomaus and S. L. Gilbert (2020). Rolling stones gather moss: movement and longevity of moss balls on an Alaskan glacier. Polar Biology. https://doi.org/10.1007%2Fs00300-020-02675-6

Dr. Jon Hare is a scientist who works in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. His research background is fisheries oceanography and climate change impacts on marine fisheries. Check out Jon’s other sciku ‘Owls of the Eastern Ice’, ‘Varves’, ‘Signs of Spring’ and ‘Cobwebs to Foodwebs’.

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Invasive Species by Dr Phil Colarusso

Misplaced visitors
Cryptic hitchhikers on boats
Food webs are altered

By Phil Colarusso

While doing eelgrass restoration work in Gloucester, I became aware of a bluish-gray growth appearing on a large number of shoots. Shortly thereafter, I read in the Woods Hole journal Oceanus about a researcher who was seeing a new species of invasive tunicates (Diplosoma listeria) appearing on scallops, boat hulls, mooring lines and eelgrass on Martha’s Vineyard. The photo was of exactly the same thing I was seeing in Gloucester.

Tunicates are filter feeding organisms that can grow as small zooids in extensive colonies or as large solitary individuals. The colonial forms tend to be prolific breeders and filter enormous quantities of water. They can grow quickly and will cover just about any surface that is bare, including pilings, clam shells, algae and eelgrass. Recent research has shown that literally miles of the seafloor can be covered by one of these colonial species, smothering other sessile life and altering the availability of the habitat.

Photo credit: Phil Colarusso

My team decided to conduct a study in a salt pond on Martha’s Vineyard, where these organisms had appeared to be particularly abundant. We initially had focused on the impact of these animals to the eelgrass in the pond, but quickly realized their prolific filter feeding may pose an additional risk to the food web of this small coastal pond.

Using stable isotopes, we determined the tunicates were feeding on the same resources as several commercially important shellfish species. Based on their high abundance, their prolific feeding rates and the small volume of the pond, our modelling suggested the tunicates could potentially filter a volume of water equivalent to the entire pond in somewhere between 1 and 17 hours. This represents a significant challenge for commercial shellfish stocks in these waters. You can see a video on this project here.

Photo credit: Phil Colarusso

It is not always clear where and how these invaders arrive, but shipping is believed to be a major vector. Planktonic life forms and small creatures are carried in ballast water and along the hulls or larger vessels. Globalization has significantly increased shipping all over the planet and as a result the unintentional transportation of organisms as well. Early detection may allow for some level of control, but often once a new species is detected in the ocean, control options are untenable. Persistent monitoring is the most prudent tool in identifying and controlling the spread of non-native species.

Original research:

Colarusso, P. et al. (2016) Quantifying the ecological impact of invasive tunicates to shallow coastal water systems. http://dx.doi.org/10.3391/mbi.2016.7.1.05

Valentine, P.C. et al. (2007) The occurrence of the colonial ascidian Didemnum sp. on Georges Bank gravel habitat – Ecological observations and potential effects on groundfish and scallop fisheries. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2006.10.038

Dr. Phil Colarusso is a marine biologist with US EPA Region I.  He has been working on eelgrass restoration, conservation and research for 31 years.  He and his team just recently had a paper on carbon sequestration rates in eelgrass in New England accepted for publication.

Enjoyed Phil’s sciku? Check out his other of his sciku Blue Carbon and Diving for Science.

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Blue Carbon by Dr. Phil Colarusso

Climate change buffer
Particles settle in grass
Seagrass meadows rule

By Phil Colarusso

Seagrass meadows collect and sequester large amounts of carbon in the sediments below the meadows.  The carbon accumulates through 2 different pathways.  First, through photosynthesis and tissue growth, seagrasses extract carbon from the water column and incorporate it into its own tissues. The root and rhizome structures and some cast leaf material end up being incorporated into the sediments.  In most cases, this provides less than half of the carbon found in those sediments.  The majority of the carbon in the sediments originates from outside of the meadow.  The canopy of the meadow functions as a filter, facilitating the settlement of organic particles as the tide passes over the meadow going in and out. 

As long as the meadow stays intact, the carbon in the sediments remains isolated and out of the global carbon cycle.  Data shows that the age of carbon in meadows can be hundreds of years old.  Seagrass meadows, salt marsh and mangroves all perform the same carbon sequestration function and collectively are referred to as blue carbon habitats.  This is still a relatively young field of research.

Photo credit: Phil Colarusso

In the above photo, you can see the seafloor in the foreground, which is primarily sandy cobble.  The eelgrass meadow has a dark organic layer indicating the large carbon component that has accumulated due to the presence of the plants.

Further reading on seagrass blue carbon: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1477

Dr. Phil Colarusso is a marine biologist with US EPA Region I.  He has been working on eelgrass restoration, conservation and research for 31 years.  He and his team just recently had a paper on carbon sequestration rates in eelgrass in New England accepted for publication.

Interested in seagrass meadows? They’re also hugely important for the world’s fisheries. Find out more in the sciku Forgotten Value here. You can also check out Phil’s sciku Invasive Species and Diving for Science.

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Climate Masting

Seed production up,
surely that’s a good thing, no?
Benefits declined.

Whilst the world stirs slowly into action to limit climate change, general consensus is that there will be some winners amongst the losers as temperatures rise. All organisms have their niches and changing environments will benefit some just as much they cost others.

Or at least that’s the simplistic take on the matter…

New research into plant masting – synchronous seed production – suggests that all isn’t as clear cut as that. The phenomenon of masting is beneficial to plants as the synchronicity “increases the efficiency of pollination and satiates predators” – sure predators will eat lots of seeds but the overwhelming numbers of seeds mean that large numbers aren’t eaten. It’s a bit like the synchronous emergence of some cicada species, which only emerge on mass every 13 or 17 years, with the gaps between emergence ensuring that predators aren’t reliant on the cicadas as a stable food source.

Bogdziewicz et al. (2020) looked at a 39 year-long masting dataset for the European beech and found that whilst climate warming increased seed production, the trees are actually losing out for three reasons:

1) Increased temperatures result in more consistent numbers of seed produced year-on-year – preventing the traditional boom and bust nature of seed production that helps to limit predator numbers.

2) Increased temperatures reduce synchronicity, resulting in less effective pollination.

3) Reduced seed production synchronicity means that predators aren’t overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of seeds available and are able to eat more seeds over a longer period of time.

All of this means that whilst the simple story suggests climate warning leads to increased seed production, the truth is more complex and instead those that actually benefit are those that eat the seeds.

Original research: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-020-0592-8

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Amid fields of rubble

Seamounts amid fields
of rubble, scars and lost gear.
A glimmer of hope.

Seamounts are underwater mountains that rise at least 1,000 meters above the seafloor with their peaks hundreds or even thousands of meters underwater. Seamounts are often thriving areas of marine life, based around high levels of plankton and deep-sea corals.

However the fishing practice of trawling can decimate these areas, destroying corals and causing huge population crashes in the species that depend on them. Deep-sea coral growth rates can be as little as micrometres a year meaning that recovery, if possible, could be very slow. As a result it’s unknown whether protecting areas damaged by trawling is worthwhile or whether once lost these deep-sea communities are unlikely to recover.

New research by Baco et al. (2019) sheds comforting light on this dimly known area. Whilst little evidence supports seamount recovery over 10 years, their study examined recovery following 30-40 years protection from trawling. Encouragingly many of the sites surveyed showed multiple signs of recovery, including coral regrowth and higher levels of animal life compared to areas still being trawled. The research is clear and much needed evidence to support continued seamount protection efforts.

Author’s note: I thought that the research study’s title was too poetic to improve upon so used part of it in this sciku. The full title is ‘Amid fields of rubble, scars, and lost gear, signs of recovery observed on seamounts on 30- to 40-year time scales’ by Amy R. Baco, E. Brendan Roark and Nicole B. Morgan.

Original research: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw4513

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A corrupted source

Viewers, be aware!
YouTube: a corrupted source
for climate info.

How do you find out about scientific advances? The news? Internet sites? Social media? YouTube? Where you gather information from can have a huge impact on your opinions and the way you act.

Whilst there’s a broad scientific consensus around anthropogenic climate change and the need to address this global challenge, public opinion remains divided. Yet politicians and companies will only act in response to climate change if public consensus makes it in their best interests. And, of course, public opinion depends on what information is available…

Published research in scientific journals is rarely accessible and comes couched in technical language – a barrier to anyone without specific training in the relevant field. Instead most people rely on the news media and, increasingly, on the internet. Yet where traditional news media outlets have checks in place to ensure that the information they present is accurate, online it’s a whole other story.

Which makes research by Joachim Allgaier (2019) at Aachen University in Germany especially worrying. Using key climate search terms he analysed 200 videos about climate and climate modification. Only 89 of the videos supported the scientific consensus, whilst 4 were videos of climate scientists discussing climate topics with deniers. The remaining 107 videos contained views that opposed scientific consensus: 16 denying anthropogenic climate change and 91 videos propagating climate conspiracy theories.

More worryingly still, many of these videos use genuine scientific terms (such as geoengineering) to bolster the credibility of their output, whilst twisting the meaning and usage of those terms to meet the arguments being made. It’s a strategy to help the output avoid being considered as conspiracy theories but it further confuses the issue and can hoodwink the unwary. Viewers beware!

Original research: http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fcomm.2019.00036

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Whale strike

To avoid striking
whales, great creatures of the sea,
use the app. Impact!

Blue whales can be injured or killed in collisions with ships, particularly in regions where migration routes cross shipping lanes. Yet because they travel huge distances, predicting where whales will be at any given time is difficult. However, now research by Abrahms et al (2019) suggests that statistical modelling techniques may be able to help.

The researchers used satellite tracking data from 104 blue whales across 14 years along with daily information on three-dimensional oceanic habitats to model the whales’ daily distribution. By using an ensemble modelling approach they were able to produce daily, year-round predictions of blue whale habitat suitability in the Californian Current Ecosystem.

The statistical approach allows the researchers to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of exposure to ship strike risk within shipping lanes in the Southern California Bight. The researchers plan on converting this approach into a downloadable app which would alert ships to the risks of whale collision and could recommend alternative shipping lanes or vessel slow-downs.

It’s a truly fascinating piece of research that seems likely to have a huge impact upon a real-world problem – research at its best.

The sciku also includes a line from Mr Scruff’s truly excellent track ‘Shanty Town’ from his ‘Keep It Unreal’ album released in 1999. The full line is ‘Whales! Great creatures of the sea! Please listen to me!’ It’s well worth checking out!

Original research: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12940

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Carbon negative

Save planet and lives –
carbon negative power.
Economic too.

Whilst parts of the world move slowly towards carbon-neutral energy sources, others lag behind, heavily reliant on coal power stations and other power sources that release greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere and have negative impacts upon air quality. Yet increasingly it seems that carbon-neutral isn’t enough: in order to limit global temperature increases carbon-negative technologies are required.

One route for carbon-negative power generation is to convert biomass into energy and then capture and store the waste carbon dioxide. By removing the carbon in the biomass from the environment this is a carbon-negative process. Yet currently this isn’t efficient and requires too much land to grow the plants, land that is then unavailable for much needed food production.

Research by Lu et al (2019) has used China as a case study to address this issue since China is heavily dependent on coal power stations. Instead of relying exclusively on biomass, the researchers propose using a combination of biomass and coal to develop a pure source of hydrogen fuel. They found that a minimum of 35% biomass could result in carbon-negative power generation. Not only that but the biomass used in the process could be plant material leftover after harvesting, plant material which is currently burnt in the fields and is a major source of air pollution. What’s more the researchers suggest that the process would be as cost effective, and thus competitive, with the current coal fired power stations.

Original research: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812239116

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Mars

If you say water

then we say volcanism,

else Mars is too cold.

Recent observations of Mars have suggested the presence of liquid water beneath the ice at the South Pole, prompting researchers to ask how water could exist in liquid state under Mars’ environmental conditions.

Research by Soria and Bramson (2019) suggests that the most likely theory to explain the presence of water would be an underground source of heat such as the formation of a magma chamber in the area within the past few hundred thousand years. The researchers also suggest the reverse is true – if there isn’t such a heat source then it’s unlikely that the earlier suggestions of liquid water are correct.

Original reseach: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080985

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Armyworms

Armyworms. Crop pests.

Inflict losses with our help.

Where will you strike next?

Crop pests cause vast economic losses worldwide, having a huge impact on the livelihoods of some of the most vulnerable populations. Originally from the Americas, the fall armyworm recently spread to sub-Saharan Africa, resulting in estimates of 20 to 50% maize yield losses. The armyworm appears to have arrived in sub-Saharan Africa as a result of passenger flights from America and has spread widely across the continent in only a couple of years.

Research by Early et al (2018) has considered where the pest might spread to next. By considering the armyworm’s life-history, current trade and transportation routes and the climates of countries that currently have populations of armyworms, the researchers were able to forecast the most likely next steps for this spreading species. In particular, the researchers highlight that the climactic conditions of South and Southeast Asia and Australia make these regions susceptible to invasion, with Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand the most vulnerable.

Original research: https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.40.28165

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Consequences

Curb carbon outputs

or face the consequences:

Falling stock prices.

 

We often hear about the environmental benefits of companies reducing their carbon outputs. Generally, however, little happens in business without consideration of the subsequent monetary impacts, and many companies have been slow to change their ways for little apparent financial incentive.

New research by Fang et al (2018) explores the impacts of companies not acting within the emission-intensive sector in North America. The researchers examined the risk factors of climate change on investment portfolios, both directly (e.g. physical risk to properties) and indirectly (e.g. as a result of stricter environmental regulations). They found that companies that don’t take steps to reduce their carbon output could be affected by stock price depreciation and asset devaluation within a decade. Such findings will hopefully prompt more action on curbing carbon emissions.

Original research: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2018.1522583

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Wild, rural, urban

Mammal density

wild, rural, urban – the same.

Rocking the suburbs.

 

Urban development encroaches on natural spaces, reducing and altering animal habitats. A consequence of this is that many species have evolved to live around humans, although developed areas are thought to have low species diversity and abundance.

Yet research by Parsons et al (2018) in coordination with citizen scientist volunteers suggests this might not be the case. Using camera traps placed in areas of varying development (from wild to urban) and scale (from forests to yards) the researchers found that mammals were found in similar or higher levels of abundancy and species richness in developed areas compared to wild areas. The research highlights the need to conserve wild areas and preserve green spaces within cities.

The keen eyed may spot that the final line of this sciku is a reference to Ben Folds’ first solo album ‘Rockin’ the Suburbs’, released in 2001.

Original research: https://doi.org/10.7554/elife.38012.001

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Winter driving

Safe winter driving.

Does the bad outweigh the good?

Costs of studded tyres.

 

Studded tyres are commonly used in many countries in winter to increase road safety when driving in icy and snowy conditions. Yet there are increasing concerns over the costs of using studded tyres.

Research by Furberg et al (2018) examined the impacts of studded tyres, across their whole lifecycle, from production to usage. Impacts of studded tyres measured were the number of lives saved, particulate emissions during use, emissions whilst the tyres are being produced, accidents during the mining of cobalt used in the studs, as well as casualties as a result of conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo where the cobalt mining occurs and which the revenues of mining effects.

When taken together the researchers found that using studded tyres cost far more lives than they saved: in Sweden it’s estimated that studded tyres save between 60 and 770 life-years, whilst the costs are between 570 and 2200 life-years. In particular, whilst the benefits of studded tyres are primarily found in the countries that use them, 23-33% of the costs are found outside of those countries.

Original research: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15081774

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Lingering threat

PCB. Lingering threat.

Slinking up food chains, silent.

Killing the killers.

 

PCBs – polychlorinated biphenyls – were widely used in a variety of manufacturing techniques until they were linked to health problems such as increasing the risk of cancer, disrupting the immune system and impairing reproduction. Despite a ban on their use, the compounds remain an environmental contamination and can accumulate in the tissues of animals, passing up the food chain to accumulate in dangerous levels in apex predators.

Whilst killer whales are one of the most populous mammal species on the planet, research by Desforges et al (2018) suggests that PCB pollution could result in a collapse in over 50% of the world’s killer whale populations. The researchers amalgamated data on PCB concentrations in killer whale tissues from across the world and modelled the predicted impacts of PCB pollution over the next 100 years. The results highlight how important it is to be aware of potential environmental issues, even with species that appear to be thriving.

Original research: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6409/1373